(Bloomberg) -- Canadians’ trust in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to deal with incoming US President Donald Trump is growing, a new survey suggests.
Trudeau is now effectively tied with Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre on the question of who is best to negotiate with Trump, according to the poll from Nanos Research Group for Bloomberg News. That’s a significant improvement for him from January, when Trudeau trailed Poilievre by 11 points on the same question.
Overall, 34% of Canadians picked Trudeau and 36% went with Poilievre when asked who would be best to manage Trump, a gap that’s within the poll’s margin of error of 3%. A further 23% said there’s no difference between the leaders.
The poll surveyed 1,084 Canadians from Nov. 30 to Dec. 4, just after a highly publicized dinner meeting between the president-elect and prime minister in Florida.
Trump has created shockwaves in Canada and Mexico with his threat to impose across-the-board tariffs of 25% on goods from those countries unless they do more to stop the flow of fentanyl and irregular migration across US borders.
The Nanos survey is a rare example of good polling news for Trudeau, whose Liberal Party still badly trails the Conservatives. The latest public opinion surveys put Poilievre’s party ahead by about 20 percentage points, with an election scheduled to take place by October 2025.
There’s still a strong desire for change in the Canadian electorate, said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of the polling firm. But Trudeau’s improved standing on the issue of dealing with the new US administration suggests there may be a path forward for the Liberals.
“If the ballot question in the next election is not about change, but who could best advance Canada’s interests in discussions with the Americans, the playing field may be more even between the Liberals and Conservatives,” Nanos said.
“Justin Trudeau has a track record of dealing with Trump and has concluded one set of free trade negotiations,” he added, referring to the renegotiation of the North American trade pact in 2018. Poilievre “will need to clearly articulate how he would manage the relationship differently and successfully.”
Trudeau traveled to the Mar-a-Lago resort on Nov. 29 to dine with Trump and members of his inner circle, including Howard Lutnick, his pick for Commerce Secretary. The Canadian leader made the case that the US has far larger problems at its southern border than its northern one, but also pledged more border security resources such as helicopters and police.
It was a high-profile and high-stakes trip, one that might pay off for Trudeau if Trump backs off from the tariff threat when he takes office Jan. 20. Conversely, the prime minister risks looking weak if Trump goes ahead with 25% levies despite the in-person appeal.
Speaking to Bloomberg TV last week, Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the US, said she believes Trudeau has a strong relationship with Trump that proved itself during the dinner at Mar-a-Lago.
“As we were leaving, the president walked us to our motorcade personally,” Hillman said. “He said, ‘Justin, call me anytime.’”
Still, Trump is standing by his threat. In an NBC News interview that aired Sunday, Trump said he’s a “big believer” in tariffs, calling them “a powerful tool not only economically, but also for getting other things outside of economics.”
--With assistance from Jay Zhao-Murray.
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