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Ireland PM’s Poll Boost Adds Pressure to Call an Early Election

(Bloomberg) -- Support for Ireland’s incumbent prime minister, Taoiseach Simon Harris, has jumped along with increases for his party, according to an Irish Times poll, results which will likely add pressure for him to call a general election this autumn.

Harris, the leader of Fine Gael, saw his personal rating surge to 55%, the poll conducted with Ipsos found, up 17 percentage points from the previous poll that was carried out in early summer. Fine Gael, meanwhile, is up four percentage points on the last poll. Opposition party Sinn Fein saw its support drop three percentage points while the personal rating of its leader Mary Lou McDonald declined by six percentage points. 

Speculation has mounted that an election, which must be held by March 2025, could be called this year as Fine Gael received a boost in popularity since Harris took over as leader in March after the sudden departure of Leo Varadkar. Since his appointment, supporters have said Harris has brought a new energy to his party. He has also taken a strong stance on immigration and vowed to increase targets on house building, the two main issues concerning voters. 

The party along with its coalition partners Fianna Fail fared better than expected in local and European Parliament elections in June, giving rise to speculation the government would attempt to capitalize on that boost and call an early election after the budget for 2025 is announced on Oct. 1. 

Sinn Fein, the left-wing Irish nationalist party, until a few months ago had been ahead in surveys with its leader Mary Lou McDonald polling as the most popular leader in polls last September. However, support for Sinn Fein in the Irish Times poll Thursday is the lowest the party has seen since before the last general election in 2020.  

The state has also seen a rising surplus on record corporation tax receipts, which means the government is in the position to offer giveaways to the electorate in its budget in October. That has been boosted by a €14 billion ($15.6 billion) windfall from Apple Inc., after the tech giant was ordered to pay up by the European Union’s top court and the revenue will be transferred to the Irish exchequer in the coming months. 

Harris told members of his parliamentary party on Wednesday that it will be spent on infrastructure and investments and said he hopes the parameters on how to invest the revenue will be set out in the upcoming budget. 

 

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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