(Bloomberg) -- Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin LLC stunned the space industry this week, launching a brand-new rocket taller than the Statue of Liberty into orbit on its first try.
Thursday’s landmark New Glenn launch came after years of setbacks and delays and unfavorable comparisons to Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which leapfrogged Blue Origin and others over the past quarter century to become the world’s most prolific rocket launcher.
It marked another step toward a future in which America’s ability to reach orbit lies with private companies and the billionaires driving them, instead of the US government. New Glenn’s debut came hours before the seventh test flight of SpaceX’s Starship, an even bigger and more powerful rocket, exploded just minutes after takeoff.
For Amazon.com Inc. founder Bezos and Blue Origin, the initial euphoria of a successful launch is likely to give way to a more sober recognition of the challenges that still lie ahead.
New rockets often take months to repeat initial success. It takes launchers time to perfect their manufacturing, integration, and testing at a scale that is repeatable and quick. And that’s assuming there are no major failures on the launch pad.
Despite expected growing pains, Blue Origin Chief Executive Officer Dave Limp has charted an ambitious course, aiming to launch six to eight New Glenn flights this year.
“We’ll learn a lot from today and try again at our next launch this spring,” Limp said after Thursday’s mission.
Such an undertaking would buck precedent set by other new rockets the world over.
It has taken six months and counting for Europe’s Ariane 6 rocket to fly for a second time after it reached orbit last July. United Launch Alliance went eight months between its first and second flights of its new Vulcan rocket — and later missions planned for 2024 slipped into this year.
Even SpaceX took six months between the Falcon 9’s 2010 debut and its second flight.
And unlike the move-fast-and-break-things ethos of many Silicon Valley tech startups, Blue Origin’s culture has been more risk-averse.
“There’s a higher level of angst to fail in Blue Origin’s company culture,” said Carter Palmer, an analyst at Forecast International.
Customer Demands
CEO Limp, an Amazon.com veteran who took over in September of 2023, faces pressure to speed up the pace of a company viewed in the aerospace industry as lethargic.
New Glenn is key to clearing a $10 billion backlog of launch contracts for commercial and government customers. The company has a prominent role in NASA’s moon program.
Some of Blue Origin’s satellite customers are facing extreme pressure to get their businesses off the ground.
Amazon has booked trips on New Glenn to build its network of internet satellites. Similarly, AST SpaceMobile Inc. needs the rocket for its space-based mobile service.
“They need to ramp up, and they need to ramp up fast,” said Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space, a consulting firm. “Their customers will truly feel the pain if they are not there.”
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Booster Recycling
New Glenn’s business case rests on more than sending satellites aloft.
If Blue Origin is to become self-sustaining from its own revenue apart from Bezos’ largess, it must prove New Glenn’s reusability. That means returning the lower portion of the rocket to Earth intact enough to refurbish it and fly again a minimum of 25 times. The company believes that will slash the cost of space travel in a strategy similar to the one pioneered by SpaceX.
That may be a long time in coming. On Thursday, after the booster separated from the upper rocket, Blue Origin failed to land it on a barge in the Atlantic Ocean.
Even with the missed booster landing, the mission elevated Blue Origin to an elite circle of US ventures capable of putting satellites into orbit, starting the company on a path to finally challenging SpaceX’s dominance.
Musk congratulated his fellow billionaire on the milestone. He even played into the internet’s idea of a budding bromance between the world’s richest men, re-posting a meme from the screwball comedy “Step Brothers” with the line: “Did we become best friends?”
The billionaires’ social media exchange showcased the two men’s roles as leading innovators in space.
Musk also now has a prominent role in President-elect Donald Trump’s inner circle after donating millions of dollars to his election campaign. And both men, along with Meta Platforms Inc. CEO Mark Zuckerberg, reportedly plan to attend Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20.
That follows President Joe Biden’s Jan. 15 farewell address in which he said — without mentioning anyone by name — that “an oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power and influence.”
Rocket Competition
Blue Origin’s rocket boasts some capabilities that Falcon 9 doesn’t have. New Glenn can launch more mass to orbit and send heavier payloads to higher altitudes.
While Blue Origin hasn’t disclosed the price tag for a launch, it could still inject new competition into the launch market.
“Blue Origin has not talked a lot about pricing,” said Carissa Christensen, CEO of space analytics firm BryceTech. “That could still be a big disruptor.”
Meanwhile, SpaceX continues to develop its huge Starship rocket which could overshadow New Glenn’s capabilities. But SpaceX likewise faces significant development hurdles.
New Glenn could be ready to vie with Falcon 9 before the end of the decade, creating a more competitive marketplace for commercial payloads.
“Within two or three years, we will have a real challenger,” said Sebastian Klaus, CEO of German startup Atmos Space Cargo GmbH.
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