One economist says she expects the Bank of Canada to lower its key interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) on Wednesday as the bank continues to shift its focus away from inflation concerns toward stimulating a slowing economy.
Citi’s Veronica Clark told BNN Bloomberg that her call for a jumbo rate cut from the central bank has not changed since its last meeting, when it lowered rates by 50 bps after three straight 25-bps cuts.
“We are expecting a 50-bps cut on Wednesday, that was my call really after the October meeting when we saw a similarly large 50-bps cut,” she said in a Monday interview.
“The guidance then (was) that rates would come down if activity and inflation evolved in line with the bank’s forecast – if anything we’ve had softer activity then the bank’s forecast – so I think it does make sense to go ahead and do another larger 50-bps cut.”
On Friday, Statistics Canada released its November labour force survey, which found the Canadian unemployment rate rose to 6.8 per cent, the highest it’s been since 2017, outside of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Canadian Press reported on Friday that Bank of Montreal’s Chief Economist Douglas Porter said the jobs data provided the Bank of Canada with a “ready invitation” to cut by 50 bps this week, something BMO also expects the central bank to do.
‘More large cuts still to come’
Clark said she expects the Bank of Canada to keep making large cuts to its key rate next year, as the bank has yet to enter its neutral range between 2.25 per cent and 3.25 per cent.
Although the rate, which currently sits at 3.75 per cent, would hit the top end of that range with a jumbo cut this week, she noted.
“I am expecting more large cuts still to come. I think on Wednesday, the framing of a 50-bps cut is going to be that rates no longer need to be at restrictive levels according to where the bank thinks a possible neutral rate is,” said Clark.
“We (currently) are still restrictive, so taking rates down by 50 bps kind of takes you to the top of that neutral rate range. I am then expecting them to cut (by 50 bps) again in January, that would take you to the middle of that neutral rate range.”
She said she expects rates to reach the bottom of the bank’s neutral range next year and added that it may need to cut further from there to create “accommodative” borrowing conditions, “because we’re really not seeing that expected pick-up in activity.”
With files from The Canadian Press