(Bloomberg) -- Oil edged higher as the outlook for bolder stimulus in China next year countered weak trade data from the world’s biggest crude importer.
West Texas Intermediate rose 0.3% to settle above $68 a barrel. Brent was little changed near $72. Chinese imports unexpectedly fell almost 4%, the largest contraction since February, in a bad sign for demand. That cooled the fervor over a Politburo vow to embrace a “moderately loose” monetary policy, the body’s most direct language on stimulus in years.
Crude futures have been rangebound since mid-October, buffeted by bullish geopolitical risks and bearish expectations of a supply glut next year. A decision by OPEC and its allies to delay the return of idled production has kept a floor under prices. It also prompted the Energy Information Administration to call for a small oil-market deficit of roughly 100,000 barrels a day next year — a reversal of the agency’s prior forecast.
Traders are now looking ahead to market outlooks from OPEC and the International Energy Agency later this week, as well as Wednesday’s US consumer price index data, the final major reading before the Fed’s policy meeting.
In the Middle East, tensions continue to simmer. The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime has left a power vacuum that may lead to more turmoil as factions fight for control, and the market is watching for any spillover into the rest of the region.
“An escalation in the regional conflict has potential to reduce oil supplies, and regional political uncertainty can increase the risk premium,” the Energy Information Administration wrote in a Tuesday report.
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--With assistance from Alex Longley.
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