As Donald Trump’s North American trade war enters its third day, one business expert warns that coming renegotiations for the Canada-U.S.-Mexico (CUSMA) free trade agreement may be our most difficult ever.
“I’m not being histrionic,” said Carleton University professor Ian Lee in an interview with CTV Your Morning Thursday. “We have a partner who is quite willing to rip up trade agreements.”
The trade war, sparked this week by U.S. President Trump’s sweeping tariffs of 25 per cent on Canadian and Mexican imports and 10 per cent on Canadian energy, has shifted the conversation about trade across the continent.
While Lee notes that the tariffs pose a “mortal threat” to Canada, he also says “paradoxically, and bizarre, as it may sound, Donald Trump has presented us with an opportunity.”
Lee calls the coming talks a chance to fold in a variety of issues, such as Canadian laws placing structural restrictions on U.S. banks, airlines and telecom providers from operating on this side of the border, declining productivity, and national security.
He notes that beyond dollars-and-cents issues, Trump’s constant drumbeat of complaints signals that the border will be key to the renegotiations. Likely issues include illegal immigration and drug trafficking, though Lee also points to the flow of illegal weapons into Canada from the United States as a point of concern.
“It’s going to be more than a trade agreement … it’s going to be, really, a treaty,” he said. “It’ll be truly unprecedented.”
One of the most notable elements, he says, will be enforcement of the agreement itself. If the United States, under Trump or some future administration, were to violate the renegotiated deal, ensuring consequences will be a sticking point.
“That, I think, is going to be the most difficult part, because of the lack of trust – understandably – amongst Canadians, from the leadership down,” he told Your Morning.
While the process is likely to be lengthy, Lee predicts Trump will want to move fast.
“He wants to have a huge victory, a huge get, that he can brag about, and say: ‘I took on the Canadians; I solved the problem at the border and the drugs and so on,” he said. “I don’t think this’ll be wrapped up in two or three months, but I think it’ll be wrapped up well before the (U.S.) midterm elections in fall ’26 to resolve this, and that will be in our self-interest as a country.”
