New home sales in the Greater Toronto Area have fallen by more than 50 per cent so far in 2025 and a new report is warning that the downward trend could eventually mean the loss of 41,000 jobs.
The report was prepared by Altus Group on behalf of the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD).
Researchers with Altus Group modeled the potential effects on the construction industry from a “prolonged period of low sales” similar to what the province has seen so far in 2025.
They found that starts and completions of single-family homes in Ontario could bottom out at about 4,000 units by 2029 compared to the more than 12,000 units that were completed as recently as 2022.
Starts and completions of apartment units would bottom out at about 10,000 units in 2029, compared to the recent high of more than 35,000 units recorded in 2023.
Altus Group says this sort of slowdown would essentially “stall” the construction sector as an “important and trusted jobs engine.”
They say the number of direct jobs produced by the sector would, in turn, decline by about 47 per cent to 18,500 while another 22,500 indirect jobs would also be lost.
The researchers say that overall investment in the construction of single-family homes would fall from $6.7 billion in 2024 to $1.9 billion in 2029.
Investment in new apartment buildings would drop from $7.5 billion in 2024 to $2.6 billion in 2029.
“The pipeline of future housing supply for the GTA is at risk, along with the livelihood of 41,000 workers in the region and billions of dollars of investments,” BILD President and CEO Dave Wilkes said in a news release accompanying the analysis.
The pace of new home sales has been at near-record lows for the better part of a year now.
In its analysis, Altus Group said that in May employment in the overall construction sector in Toronto fell to its lowest level since the spring of 2021 when many COVID-19 restrictions were still in effect.
It says the number of jobs attributed to the sector has already declined by 34,600 from the recent peak in 2023.
“Ontario’s construction sector unemployment rate topped 10 per cent in April which is its higher rates since the depth of the pandemic interruptions,” the report states. “Meanwhile the number of vacant construction jobs (i.e., unfilled positions) in Ontario, which had been as high as 8 per cent of all jobs in 2022 has fallen to a low of 2.6; a sign of slackness in the market not seen for many years.”
