CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster.
The federal Liberals have increased their lead to nine points over the Conservatives on Day 12 of the federal election campaign.
A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research ending April 2 has Mark Carney’s Liberals at 46 per cent, leading Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, who are at 37 per cent.
The New Democratic Party remains at nine per cent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (six per cent), Green Party of Canada (two per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (one per cent).
“Over the initial five days of data collection, the Liberals have experienced a notable rise, climbing from 42% to 46%,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research and official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail. “Meanwhile, the NDP’s descent into single digits marks a significant setback for a party that has previously served as Canada’s Official Opposition.
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Regional support
The Liberals have also increased their lead by a percentage point in Ontario, with 51 per cent of those surveyed choosing them over the Conservatives, who have fallen a point to 37 per cent.
The Liberals also continue to lead in every region except the Prairies, where the Conservatives continue to dominate with 64 per cent of those surveyed backing them -- versus 23 per cent for the Liberals.
Meanwhile, the Liberals are up a percentage point in Quebec and sit at 51 per cent today; while the Conservatives are down three points at 18 per cent.
Who is preferred prime minister?
When it comes to who Canadians prefer to become prime minister, 50 per cent chose Carney (up one per cent) compared to 33 per cent for Poilievre (down one per cent). NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remains at five per cent.
“Interestingly, Liberal leader Mark Carney’s ballot box advantage (nine points) nearly doubles—spiking to 17 points—when respondents are asked who they would prefer as prime minister," said Nanos. “We are in an environment with parallels to the recent Ontario election, where Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford capitalized on being seen as a counterpoint to Donald Trump. Carney appears to be benefiting from a similar dynamic, currently securing an electoral boost.”
Gender gap
A gender breakdown of the Nanos tracking shows women are more likely to vote for the Liberals than men. Fifty-two per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals, compared with 29 per cent of women who’d vote Conservative.
Meanwhile, 40 per cent of men said they would back the Liberals compared with 45 per cent for the Conservatives.
Methodology
CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, March 31 April 2, 2025, n=1,285, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
