CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster.

Heading into tonight’s French language debate, the Liberals have an eight-point lead over the Conservatives on Day 25 of the 36-day federal election campaign.

A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research ending April 15 has the Liberals at 45 per cent over the Conservatives who are at 37 per cent (down two points) nationally.

The New Democratic Party is at 8, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (six per cent), Green Party of Canada (two per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (one per cent).

Regional support

Regionally, Liberal support remains strongest in Ontario, Atlantic Canada and Quebec and in B.C.; while Conservative support is the strongest in the Prairies.

In seat-rich Ontario the Liberals have an 11-point advantage and are at 50 per cent versus the Conservatives who are at 39 per cent. The NDP are at eight per cent.

The Liberals continue their strong lead in Quebec and are at 45 per cent, compared with the Conservatives who have lost a few points and are at 19. The Bloc Quebecois are in second place at 28 per cent.

“The shape of the race in Quebec today is much different compared to the last federal election results in Quebec with the Liberals up at the expense of both the NDP and the BQ,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research and the official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives continue to dominate with 63 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 25 per cent for the Liberals.

In B.C., meanwhile, the Conservatives have lost the lead they had a week ago and are now at 34 per cent, with the Liberals now at 45 per cent.

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The Liberal lead in the Atlantic region has now increased significantly to 64 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 29 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP are far behind in the region at six per cent.

Who is preferred prime minister?

When it comes to whom Canadians prefer as prime minister, Carney has maintained a 16-point advantage, with 49 per cent choosing him over Poilievre, who sits at 33 per cent.

By gender and age

A gender breakdown of Nanos tracking shows women continue to be far more likely to vote Liberal than men. Fifty-four per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals, compared with 26 per cent who’d vote Conservative. Ten per cent of women back the NDP.

Meanwhile, the number of men who said they would vote Liberal is at 35 per cent, compared with 49 for the Conservatives. Only seven per cent of men surveyed would vote NDP.

The Conservative advantage among voters under 35 is three per cent over Liberals; while the Liberals continue to do significantly better among older voters. Fifty-three per cent of those aged 55 and up said they would back the Liberals, versus 32 for the Conservatives.

For those 35 to 54, it’s a tie with both Conservatives and Liberals at 42 per cent.

Methodology

CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 13 to 15, 2025, n=1,285, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.