People who immigrated to Canada — or are within two generations of family members who did — are more likely to support the Liberals than the Conservatives, according to a new survey.
The Nanos Research poll, conducted for CTV News and The Globe and Mail, found the widest gap in support among first-generation Canadian citizens, meaning people with at least one parent who was born in another country.
“People talk about diaspora politics, … people that are new Canadians, and who do they support, who do they not support, what are their political preferences?” said chief data scientist Nik Nanos on CTV News Trend Line.
“When we profiled and looked at how people said that they were going to be voting, or what parties that they were going to support in the election and on the leadership front, who they preferred, (there was) a pretty significant difference.”
Within the group of first-generation Canadians, 46.1 per cent of respondents said they favour the Liberals while 35.8 per cent said the same about the Conservatives, a difference of 10.3 percentage points.
Only 8.5 per cent said they support the NDP, and just 4.7 per cent said the same about the Greens.
Smaller support gap among immigrants
There was a similar divide among second-generation Canadians — those with at least one grandparent who was born in another country — of whom 47 per cent of respondents said they support the Liberals and 37.1 per cent said that about the Conservatives.
Few favoured the NDP or Greens in that group either, at 11.1 per cent and 3.7 per cent, respectively.
Immigrants themselves were more closely split, with 46 per cent favouring the Liberals and 42.7 per cent favouring the Conservatives, a difference of 3.3 percentage points. The survey found 6.2 per cent of that group supported the NDP, while 3.5 per cent said the same about the Greens.
“It means that places like Montreal that have significant immigrant, first- and second-generation individuals living in Montreal (and) places like Toronto, places like the GTA that have a significant first- and second-generation Canadian immigrant population -- right now at least, they’re favoring the Liberals,” said Nanos.
That hasn’t always been the case. In the past Stephen Harper government, for instance, Nanos said it was a big part of the Conservative strategy to “tap into those diaspora communities. And you know, when the Conservatives did well among the diaspora community, that usually pointed to a Conservative victory.”
But right now, research is favouring the Liberals when it comes to diaspora committees. “And those happen to be in critical battlegrounds,” said Nanos, “like the 905 and also in the Lower Mainland in British Columbia.”
Of note, however, Nanos said the Bloc Québécois has less support among immigrants, first-generation and second-generation Canadians in Québec.
Zero per cent of respondents who were born in another country said they support the Bloc.
‘Dead heat’ among those with deeper roots
Nanos said there was a “dead heat” between the Liberals and Conservatives among respondents with “weak or no connection to immigration,” meaning those whose entire families have been Canada-born for at least three generations.
Among those respondents, 40.6 per cent said they favoured the Liberals and 40.5 per cent said they favoured the Conservatives.
Asked for their preferred prime minister, respondents favoured Liberal Leader Mark Carney over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre by about nine percentage points overall.
Nanos noted Carney held “a stronger lead with those more closely connected to immigration,” particularly second-generation Canadians, among whom the Liberal candidate was ahead by nearly 20 percentage points.
The survey was conducted online and over the phone from April 21 to 23, among 1,307 randomly selected adults. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
