With just four days left before voters head to the polls, Pierre Poilievre made his first campaign visit to Saskatchewan in a province wrapped in Conservative blue.
On Thursday evening Poilievre basked in the applause of hundreds of supporters who crowded into a warehouse in Saskatoon to hear him give his stump speech. Poilievre opened with new material after Liberal Leader Mark Carney acknowledged earlier in the day that President Donald Trump had brought up the idea of Canada becoming the 51st state in their first call in March.
“Is there a firefighter in the house?” Poilievre asked, scanning the room before delivering the punchline with a huge grin. “There’s an emergency - Mark Carney’s pants are on fire again.”
Carney told the “whopper,” Poilievre said, because he wanted to “distract from the lost Liberal decade of rising costs and crime to trick Canadians into electing Liberals for a fourth disastrous term.”
Poilievre’s flow was interrupted by three protesters waving an American flag calling for Canada to become the 51st state.
“Get them outta here,” Poilievre urged as the hecklers were escorted out to a chorus of boos. Five minutes later, the shouts of a lone pro-Palestinian activist were overtaken by the chant “we want change” led by the Conservative leader himself.
Similar 51st state protests and pro-Palestinian disruptions also occurred during Carney’s visit to Saskatoon early in April.
Poilievre appeared more energetic and upbeat than he has been in previous stops this week in Vaughan and Halifax following the release of the Conservative platform.
In Saskatchewan, Poilievre was standing among the party’s most loyal supporters. In both the 2019 and 2021 election, Conservatives swept all 14 seats in the province.
Endorsing energy
A day before the rally, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe provided more affirmation through his endorsement.
In a video posted to “X” on Wednesday Moe said the Liberal government had made it more difficult for the Prairie province to extract and sell resources.
“Saskatchewan will never be part of the U.S., but isn’t it time we had a government that treats us like we’re part of Canada? That’s why I’m voting Conservative and for Pierre Poilievre to be our next prime minister,” said Moe.
Rallying for support
But some analysts say such a late-stage Prairie stop may indicate trouble on the horizon.
“The fact that Poilievre is choosing to spend time in the province is interesting,” said Loleen Berdahl, a political studies professor at the University of Saskatchewan. She says it’s possible the Conservatives’ internal polling numbers are revealing a growing threat, even though the Liberals and the NDP have not won a seat in the province federally since 2015.
“It becomes a question, are they perceiving (Saskatchewan) still to be a stronghold or are they perceiving there to be some weaknesses?”
Another sign for Berdahl that Poilievre is on the defensive to guard against declining support comes from the party’s recent promise in its platform to end “woke” ideology in the federal public service.
“To me it suggests a focus on the preserving and protection of existing voters and people who are going to vote Conservative anyways instead of broadening that tent.”
Berdahl said the “anti-woke” language is being heard more in neighbouring Alberta and filtering up through the United States.
It will resonate more in rural ridings than it will in the province’s two largest cities of Regina and Saskatoon, the political scientist says.
Red blooms
But outside the industrial park, away from the throngs of Conservative faithful, the once rare sightings of red Liberal signs are becoming more common on the winter worn lawns of Saskatoon’s neighborhoods.
“There has been such a historic animosity toward the federal Liberal party that seeing any enthusiasm for the Liberals in the province is quite striking,” says Berdahl
In 2021, the Conservatives won all but five ridings with more than 50 per cent of the vote. This time collapsing NDP support could coalesce behind the Liberals, putting those districts at risk for the Tories.
The handful of ridings that could surprise are in Regina and Saskatoon, and in the northern constituency of Desnethe-Misinnipi-Churchill River.
The possibility of wrestling those seats from the Tories, brought both Mark Carney and Jagmeet Singh to Saskatoon on the same day during the third week of the campaign.
Berdahl says she sees little orange support at the national level, although the New Democrats are competitive provincially.
In last year’s provincial election, the NDP cut into Premier Moe’s seat count and won 27/61 seats and 44 per cent of the vote.
“What might be moving people from the NDP to the Liberals? Is it dissatisfaction with Jagmeet Singh? You’ve also seen the provincial NDP do their absolute best to create distance from the federal party,” Berdahl points out.
She predicts one northern riding will flip from blue to red. Despite the growing support, Berdahl says it’s unlikely the Liberals will win more than three seats.
If that were to happen, Berdahl says that would indicate a significant shift in political attitudes in a province that hasn’t voted in a Liberal in a decade.
