(Bloomberg) -- A majority of economists say the Bank of Canada will lower rates on Wednesday, and they believe government bonds will stage a modest rally when the first cut finally happens.
Eleven of 16 forecasters in a Bloomberg survey expect policymakers led by Governor Tiff Macklem to deliver a 25-basis-point cut this week, the central bank’s first since 2020. What they’ll do after that is still highly uncertain.
There’s no consensus on the pace of easing in the short term — half of respondents say the bank’s governing council will deliver back-to-back cuts, while the other half see a pause after the first rate reduction. By this time next year, forecasters believe policymakers will have cut the benchmark overnight rate to 3.5% from the current 5%.
Bonds should rally as the central bank begins to reduce the restrictiveness of monetary policy, economists say. Two-thirds expect yields on two- to five-year government notes to fall by less than 25 basis points within a week after the first cut. Declining yields are likely to lead to lower mortgage rates and increased housing activity.
The survey closed Friday, after gross domestic product data for the first quarter showed slower-than-expected growth. While 16 analysts took the survey, not all replied to every question.
Ten of 14 respondents to a question on housing say the first bout of easing won’t trigger a major home price increase. That would be reassuring to policymakers, who listed a spike in real estate valuations as a top risk to the inflation outlook in their April monetary policy report.
Overall, the poll shows widespread support for Macklem to start lowering rates. Though nearly two-thirds of economists surveyed say the bank’s credibility would be harmed if it’s forced to pivot back to hiking, over 90% consider inflation expectations to be roughly anchored. Half expect yearly inflation to return to the bank’s 2% target in the second half of 2024, while the other half see that happening sometime in 2025.
Read More: Bank of Canada Sees Gradual Pace of Rate Cuts to Balance Risks
Thirteen of 14 economists say the central bank shouldn’t aim to undershoot its 2% inflation target, even though yearly price pressures exceeded the 3% cap of the target band for 32 of the past 37 months.
Half of analysts say the 2024 midpoint of the bank’s estimate of potential growth is about right after being hiked to 2.5% from 2.1% in April. Another 43% say it’s too high.
Almost two-thirds of economists say Canadian households have seen about as much financial strain as they expected when the Bank of Canada started hiking in 2022, while nearly all the remaining respondents were surprised by households’ resiliency.
--With assistance from Jay Zhao-Murray and Sarina Yoo.
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