(Bloomberg) -- Most economists say they expect Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government will break its self-imposed fiscal constraints as deficits in Canada continue to deepen.
In a Bloomberg survey, 13 of 15 economists said Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland will not meet the fiscal pledges she outlined last year, including a promise to cap the 2023-24 shortfall at C$40.1 billion ($28.4 billion). In an update last November, she also promised to keep the ratio of federal debt and deficits to gross domestic product on a declining track.
Freeland announced Monday that on Dec. 16 she will release the fall economic statement, an update that outlines a plan for the country’s fiscal trajectory. The statement is usually released in October or November, and she has blamed the delay on parliamentary stalling by the Conservatives. In the past, finance ministers have sometimes opted to deliver the numbers outside of parliament.
In an interview last month, Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux told Bloomberg that he expects the federal government blew its fiscal anchor by running a C$46.8 billion deficit in 2023-24. His office has been outspoken about setting a firm release date for the final fiscal numbers, and suggests a deadline of Sept. 30 every year instead of leaving it to the incumbent government to hand over the final tally when it’s convenient for them.
“Canada’s fiscal position is strong and enviable — Canada maintains the lowest debt and deficit ratios in the G-7,” Katherine Cuplinskas, a spokeswoman for the finance minister, said when asked for comment.
The survey was conducted between Dec. 3 and Dec. 6 and includes Canada’s six biggest lenders.
(Adds date of fall economic statement in third paragraph.)
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