BHP Group Ltd. is warning U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff spree could trigger a global economic slowdown and challenge trade flows, as the world’s biggest miner posted a solid quarterly production performance for key commodities including copper and iron ore.
“Despite the limited direct impact of tariffs on BHP, the implication of slower economic growth and a fragmented trading environment could be more significant,” Chief Executive Officer Mike Henry said in a statement Thursday. “China’s ability to shift toward a consumption-led economy and for trade flows to adapt to the new environment will be key to sustaining the global outlook.”
The global commodities market has been one of the sectors most exposed to the fallout from Trump’s burgeoning trade war. That could complicate Henry’s agenda to grow BHP’s holdings of what he calls “future facing commodities” — copper and potash. The drive has been backed by revenue derived from the miner’s long-standing iron ore business, which still accounts for more than half of its earnings.
BHP’s production of copper in 2025’s first three months climbed 10 per cent, boosted by a ramp of of its Escondida operations in Chile, it said. Meanwhile, output from its Australian iron ore projects was steady at 68.1 million tons, and it kept its full-year guidance for the steel-making material unchanged.
Prices of copper — seen as a global economic bellwether — tumbled from late March as Trump launched his tariff spree, before recovering some losses. Iron ore has been comparatively stable, despite dropping below US$100 a ton during April on concerns of oversupply as Beijing battles with a property crisis and slowing economy.
Henry backed his company to benefit from the turmoil, saying investors will be attracted to its large-scale, low-cost projects. BHP is one of the lowest cost iron ore miners in the world at around $18 a ton, while selling at an average of about $83 to the market during the quarter, according to the filings.
“In the face of global volatility and policy uncertainty, BHP is poised to benefit from a flight to quality with Tier-one assets, industry-leading margins and high-return organic growth opportunities that will underpin value and returns through the cycle,” Henry said.
That doesn’t mean BHP is immune to the challenges facing the mining sector. In February, it slashed its dividend by 31 per cent.
BHP was also impacted by seasonal weather interruptions across its iron ore and coal operations during the period, which is its third quarter. Like peer Rio Tinto Group, it posted lower production quarter-on-quarter in the iron-rich Pilbara region due to severe cyclone events.
Rio reported on Wednesday that iron ore shipments had fallen nine per cent due to cyclones. The impact on BHP’s iron ore operations was comparatively smaller, but it said its coal fields in Queensland were hit by heavy rainfall, with production of the steelmaking fuel down 12 per cent on the previous three months.
Copper and potash
The company has sold off many of its coal assets and exited oil and gas under Henry’s management, turning to copper — used in electrification and key to the energy transition — for its next leg of growth. BHP made a $49 billion bid for Anglo American Plc last year, which ultimately failed.
BHP has a controlling 57.5 per cent interest in the massive Escondida project, which was hit by power outages over the reporting period. Still, it delivered better yields over the three months, driven by higher quality ore.
While its Nickel West business remains in care and maintenance, due to a crash in prices driven by oversupply from Indonesia, it is developing a major potash mine — Jansen —- in Canada, which is set to become a big supplier to the fertilizer market. The project’s first stage is 66 per cent complete, with initial production is scheduled for next year, BHP said.
Paul-Alain Hunt, Bloomberg News
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