Mike Philbrick’s Top Picks for July 30, 2025

Mike Philbrick, CEO, ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman)

Focus: Return stacked and all terrain systematic global macro strategies, harnessing factor exposures for diversification via managed futures

Top picks: Vanguard FTSE Developed All Cap ex U.S. Index ETF, BMO Equal Weight Global Gold Index ETF, Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF

MARKET OUTLOOK:

Markets continue to climb the proverbial wall of worry. Since 2019, we’ve navigated a global pandemic, war, inflation spikes, the fastest rate hikes in decades, tariff tantrums, and widespread geopolitical instability, yet the U.S. economy remains remarkably resilient. Investors have been reluctant to embrace the rally, despite strong earnings, improving economic data, and record equity highs.

This skepticism may be misplaced. Underappreciated tailwinds, including fiscal support, strong household and corporate balance sheets, and a potential pivot to more dovish monetary policy create the conditions for a durable upside surprise in growth. Wall Street still assigns elevated recession probabilities, but we see those odds as overstated.

Layer in the accelerating impact of artificial intelligence which has the potential to both increase productivity and exert a deflationary force across industries and the long-term case for growth becomes even more compelling. AI may prove to be a structural tailwind that helps offset inflationary pressures while boosting margins and earnings capacity.

In our view, the real risk lies not in a downturn, but in underexposure to an accelerating economy. Over US$7 trillion remains in money market funds, and should yields drift lower, that capital may rotate back into risk assets, amplifying the rally. At the same time, ongoing trade disputes and geopolitical tensions may add complexity, but are unlikely to derail the broader growth trajectory.

This is a misunderstood, under-owned bull market and staying on the sidelines may prove more dangerous than participating.

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TOP PICKS:

Vanguard FTSE Developed All Cap ex U.S. Index ETF (VDU TSX)

The ETF seeks to track the performance of a broad developed markets index, excluding the United States. It provides exposure to large, mid, and small-cap companies across Europe, the Pacific, and Canada.

With U.S. equities still trading near record valuations, developed international markets offer a compelling relative value opportunity. Valuation spreads between U.S. and non-U.S. equities remain historically wide, even after recent strength in some overseas markets. Many of these regions, particularly Europe and Japan, are showing signs of improving economic momentum, supported by still-accommodative monetary policy, corporate governance reforms, and increasing investor focus on shareholder value (notably in Japan).

A weakening U.S. dollar would provide an additional tailwind for Canadian investors holding foreign equities. Meanwhile, Canada’s deep economic ties with these markets makes this exposure especially relevant. As global supply chains adjust and regional blocs form around energy security, AI infrastructure, and defense realignment, developed ex-U.S. equities could stand to benefit disproportionately.

VDU offers a broad, cost-efficient, and diversified way to express this view — across geographies, market caps, and sectors. It’s a simple tool to help rebalance geographic concentration risks and access global growth that may be underappreciated by investors still heavily overweight U.S. mega-caps.

BMO Equal Weight Global Gold Index ETF (ZGD TSX)

This ETF seeks to provide exposure to global gold producers by tracking an equal-weighted index of gold mining companies.

Gold has historically served as a store of value and a hedge during periods of heightened geopolitical risk, inflation, and currency volatility, conditions that continue to dominate today’s macro environment. Central banks remain net buyers of gold, with sovereign accumulation reaching record levels in recent years. This speaks volumes about gold’s enduring role as a foundational reserve asset, even as fiat regimes evolve.

ZGD offers a unique take on the gold sector by providing equal-weighted exposure to global gold producers. This contrasts with traditional market-cap-weighted approaches that concentrate heavily on a few large-cap miners. Equal weighting allows investors to gain more balanced exposure across the sector, including access to smaller and mid-sized companies that often exhibit stronger production growth, greater leverage to rising gold prices, and potential for mergers and acquisiton (M&A) activity.

With increasing concerns around global debt sustainability, potential interest rate cuts, and a structurally weaker U.S. dollar, gold-related equities are well-positioned for a re-rating. Moreover, rising geopolitical fragmentation and efforts to de-dollarize global reserves continue to support structural demand for physical gold.

ZGD’s diversified, equal-weighted exposure offers a compelling way to participate in the upside of this environment, not just through gold itself, but via the companies producing it, especially those poised for higher growth.

Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF (FBTC TSX)

The ETF seeks to invest in and track the price of Bitcoin, offering direct exposure to the world’s most widely held digital asset through a Canadian-listed ETF.

Bitcoin is no longer a fringe asset. With the launch of U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing institutional adoption, it has entered the mainstream, increasingly considered a legitimate allocation in diversified portfolios. Regulatory clarity is improving, infrastructure has matured, and tools like FBTC allow Canadian investors to access Bitcoin easily, securely, and efficiently.

FBTC delivers direct Bitcoin exposure without the complexity of wallets or exchanges, and does so at an industry-low management fee of just 0.36 per cent making it one of the most cost-effective Bitcoin ETFs globally.

At a macro level, Bitcoin offers scarcity in a world of abundant monetary stimulus. With sovereign debt levels rising, fiat debasement concerns growing, and younger investors embracing decentralization, Bitcoin is gaining traction as a form of “digital gold.”

As institutional mandates evolve and digital assets find a place in traditional portfolio construction, we believe Bitcoin is shifting from speculative fringe to foundational allocation. FBTC provides a clean, regulated way to participate in that transition.

PAST PICKS: AUG 30, 2024

iShares Gold Bullion ETF (CGL.C TSX)

Then: $28.45

Now: $38.42

Return: 35%

Total Return: 35%

TD Q U.S. Small-Mid-Cap Equity ETF (TQSM TSX)

Then: $23.63

Now: $24.85

Return: 5%

Total Return: 6%

iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF NYSEARCA)

Then: US$28.05

Now: US$25.74

Return: -8%

Total Return: -2%

Total Return Average: 13%