Brianne Gardner’s Top Picks for August 25, 2025

Brianne Gardner, Senior Wealth Manager, Velocity Investment Partners, Raymond James

Focus: Canadian and U.S. large caps

Top picks: IBM, Salesforce, Brookfield Infrastructure

MARKET OUTLOOK:

Markets are entering a new chapter where policy signals, data surprises, and earnings momentum are all shaping the tone. In the U.S., the mood shifted after Jackson Hole, where U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted the Fed is inching toward rate cuts.

Inflation is cooling, but the fight isn’t over. The headline consumer price index (CPI) sits at 2.7 per cent, while core remains sticky at 3.1 per cent. Investors are now watching closely to see if tariffs begin feeding into prices over the final months of the year. The labour market tells a similar story: slowing, but steady enough to avoid recession fears. That softer backdrop is exactly what investors wanted, and equities are holding firm as earnings strength spreads beyond technology, with consumer and industrial sectors showing surprising resilience.

Canada’s narrative feels like a softer echo of the U.S. arc. Headline inflation has fallen to 1.7 per cent, helped by cheaper energy, but core measures hover near three per cent, keeping the Bank of Canada cautious. The policy rate sits at 2.75 per cent, and markets are divided about a cut in September. Meanwhile, the TSX has rallied quietly, driven by strength in materials and financials, while energy hasn’t been the strong contributor it once was, held back by muted oil performance.

Our approach into year-end is to stay anchored in quality — companies with strong cash flow and pricing power. Markets may have a reason to celebrate today, but valuations are stretched and almost perfection is priced in, leaving equities vulnerable to any negative surprises.

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TOP PICKS:

IBM (IBM NYSE)

• IBM has transformed itself into a hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) company, with Red Hat and watsonx now at the core of its strategy.
• Software remains the engine, growing eight per cent last quarter, but some clients have paused spending. We believe that’s short-term.
• Its GenAI pipeline is gaining traction — IBM now has US$7.5 billion in GenAI-related business, up $1.5 billion from last quarter alone.
• Margins are quietly improving, thanks to more software revenue and automation.
• Cash flow remains strong. It is expected at $13.8 billion this year, giving them flexibility even as debt has climbed post mergers and acquisitions (M&A).
• IBM is a real contender in the quantum race and one of the few building real hardware. They’re targeting enterprise-ready systems by 2029, which could unlock new commercial applications.

Salesforce (CRM NYSE)

• Salesforce is the global leader in customer relationship management software and a pioneer in letting businesses use software over the internet by subscription, what we now call SaaS.
• We like Salesforce because it’s no longer just a customer relationship management company. It’s becoming the operating system for the modern enterprise.
• Its customer 360 platform, along with Data Cloud and Agentforce, connects departments and turns raw data into real-time, AI-driven insights.
• AI is already delivering and recurring revenue from AI and Data Cloud has surpassed US$1 billion, up 120 per cent year-over-year. A big part of top deals now include AI components.
• Valuation remains attractive trading at around 22 times forward earnings, near the low end of its historical range.
• Salesforce is scaling AI across its platform, expanding margins, and returning cash to shareholders making it one of the most compelling names in large-cap tech today.

Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP-UN TSX)

1. Brookfield Infrastructure is all about essential services. They own pipelines, railroads, telecom towers, and data centres across the globe.
2. The business is holding up well. Last quarter, they beat expectations thanks to strong results in midstream energy and data infrastructure.
3. The data segment is becoming a real growth engine up 45 per cent year-over-year driven by new assets like Indian towers and fibre networks.
4. They’re putting money to work in smart places. Recent deals include a stake in Colonial Pipeline and a U.S. fiber business, adding up to US$1.3 billion in investments.
5. At the same time, they’re recycling capital efficiently with $2.4 billion in asset sales frees up cash for new opportunities without relying on new equity.
6. The stock yields about 5.5 per cent today and still trades below its usual valuation. It’s a steady compounder that keeps delivering across cycles.

PAST PICKS: AUGUST 19, 2024

VISA (V NYSE)

Then: US$266.47

Now: US$348.51

Return: 31%

Total Return: 32%

CHEVRON (CVX NYSE)

Then: US$146.83

Now: US$158.08

Return: 8%

Total Return: 12%

CN RAIL (CNR TSX)

Then: $155.04

Now: $132.09

Return: -15%

Total Return: -13%

Total Return Average: 10%