Darren Sissons, Partner and Portfolio Manager, Campbell, Lee & Ross Investment Management
Focus: Global and technology stocks
Top picks: Novo Nordisk, Tourmaline Oil, Visa
MARKET OUTLOOK:
U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term has been a wild ride so far. Perhaps the most reflective example of that volatility is the Nasdaq, which although up 10 per cent year to date, was down 19 per cent in April and averages a sub one per cent average gain across the last 12 months.
While 2024 market outperformance was largely U.S. election spending driven by the incumbent Democrats and the hopeful Republicans, 2025 has primarily been President Trump driven market volatility. The executive orders shattered tranquil multi-decade trading relationships across the globe as have bully-boy rhetoric like the unpalatable 51st state rhetoric. However, what is often missed with Trump’s presidencies is his change agency and wealth catalyst impacts. Priced off 2024 highs, U.S. growth stocks, which largely drove U.S. indices for the lion’s share of the last decade, were clearly over valued and carrying high and in many cases unsustainable valuation multiples. The second Trump reset created buying opportunities across growth particularly but also for Value and Growth at a Reasonable Price or GARP market segments. Across sectors, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals look attractively priced as do portions of software, med-technology, and logistics.
Trump’s first administration lesson was to focus on the key target, which remains China, and to short or exit that category but increase exposure to categories of lesser significance to policy changes and to sectors benefitting from improved policy support.
Caution, however, is warranted on equities as presently markets are clearly pricing in a successful tariff plan conclusion. That may be overly optimistic as the United Kingdom is the only major trading partner to negotiate a trade deal. All other major trading partners are either politely or otherwise ignoring the tariff offensive so little else has changed. On fixed income, the critical question remains, is the inflation spike a one-time, nonrecurring impact once normalized or a new normal?
- Market-moving news, fast: Get the BNN Bloomberg App now
- Sign up for the Market Call Top Picks newsletter at bnnbloomberg.ca/subscribe
TOP PICKS:
Novo Nordisk (NVO NYSE)
Novo Nordisk is a major pharmaceutical company specializing in diabetes and more recently obesity and weight loss. In 2024, it was the largest company in Europe but sold off heavily in 2025 due to erroneous assumptions around the superiority of the Eli Lilly Co. obesity drug pipeline. That error was partially corrected in August when Lilly updated the efficacy of orforglipron (once daily oral pill), which proved inferior to Novo’s Amycretin. Novo’s share price reacted positively to the news as the valuation differential between it and Lilly remains excessive. In Canadian dollars, Novo Nordisk grew revenue and EPS at 19 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively over the last five years. Novo’s 10 year annualized total return in Canadian dollars even with the 2025 erroneous sell-off averaged 10 per cent.
Tourmaline Oil (TOU TSX)
Tourmaline Oil dividend currently yields 3.5 per cent. LNG Canada is a game-changing catalyst for Tourmaline as it supports access to premium priced export markets in Asia and provides optionality against U.S. price discounting. LNG Canada phase 2 expansion, which doubles export capacity to 28 million tones per annum (MTPA), will provide an additional step-up catalyst moving forward. Management target shareholder value maximization via sustainable but rising dividends, special dividends, and share buybacks. Energy companies are currently discounted due to the weak near-term outlook for energy demand. Longer term money looking through bearish near-term headwinds can acquire Tourmaline at an inexpensive entry level.
Visa (V NYSE)
Visa is best-of-breed payments company positioned to benefit from rising prices and inflation. It’s dividend currently yields 0.70 per cent and has grown at an annual average rate of 23 per cent for 15 years. It has an attractive global footprint with deeply entrenched market leading positions in the U.S., Asia, Europe, and an emerging footprint in the high growth Chinese market. The company has generated 10-and 20-year Canadian dollar total returns of 18 per cent and 26 per cent, respectively.
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVO NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
| TOU TSX | Y | Y | Y |
| V NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
PAST PICKS: AUGUST 6, 2024
Accenture (ACN NYSE)
Then: US$318.68
Now: US$256.37
Return: -19%
Total Return: -18%
Crombie REIT (CRR-UN TSX)
Then: $13.80
Now: $15.04
Return: 9%
Total Return: 16%
Northrop Grumman (NOC NYSE)
Then: US$486.53
Now: US$592.02
Return: 22%
Total Return: 23%
Total Return Average: 7%
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACN NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
| CRR-UN TSX | Y | Y | Y |
| NOC NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
