Russia’s exports of refined products dropped this month as the surge in diesel outflows observed in January has subsided.
Shipments in the first 15 days of February dropped to 2.3 million barrels a day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. That’s about 8% below the average flows in January, when volumes surged to the highest in 11 months.
Seaborne oil exports are a key indicator for the market to evaluate Russia’s production levels and also assess the impact of the latest US sanctions on oil flows. Crude shipments are rising but there are challenges to delivering the cargoes, vessel tracking compiled by Bloomberg shows.
Meanwhile, oil product exports declined this month, primarily driven by the tapering off of unusually strong diesel flows in January due to high supply from refineries via Primorsk, according to Mick Strautmann, a market analyst at Vortexa.
Fuel supplies have been constrained amid a barrage of drone attacks on Russian refineries. Crude-processing rates grew marginally in early February.
“Persistent outages and drone related incidents may keep product exports down in the short term,” Strautmann said.
Here’s a breakdown of shipments from Russian ports this month through Feb. 15:
Diesel and gasoil exports declined by 16% from January levels to about 985,000 barrels a day. Shipments sailing toward Africa have eased from the elevated volumes observed last month.
Naphtha shipments have surged to 483,000 barrels a day, the highest since March 2023. That’s a gain of 21% from the previous month, partially compensating for the sharp decline in diesel flows and supporting overall product exports. Majority of the increased volumes originated from Baltic ports.
Fuel oil flows remain tepid at 644,000 barrels a day, dropping to the lowest in nine months. Exports of refinery feedstocks like vacuum gasoil more than halved from the previous month to only 57,000 barrels a day.
Gasoline and blending component exports jumped to a seven-month high at 85,000 barrels a day, ahead of a possible ban on export of the road fuel. Jet fuel cargoes dropped to 20,000 barrels a day.
Cargo volumes and destinations are likely to be revised as more shipments are observed for the rest of the month.
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