U.S. President Donald Trump appears to prefer U.S. oil prices between US$40 and $50 a barrel, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., citing an in-house analysis of his social-media posts on the topic.
Trump “has always been focused on oil and on U.S. energy dominance, having posted nearly 900 times,” analysts including Daan Struyven said in a report. His “inferred preference for WTI appears to be around $40 to $50 a barrel, where his propensity to post about oil prices bottoms,” they said.
Oil prices — both global crude benchmark Brent, as well as U.S. counterpart West Texas Intermediate , or WTI — are often buffeted by the U.S. president’s prolific social-media commentary, which can reference everything from OPEC policy and U.S. gasoline prices to sanctions against nations including Iran. His administration has favored increased domestic production, as well as a broad push for cheap energy to help bring down inflation.
The U.S. leader “tends to call for lower prices (or celebrate falling prices) when WTI is greater than $50,” the analysts said. “In contrast, President Trump has called for higher prices when prices are very low (WTI less than $30) often in the context of supporting U.S. production.”
WTI — which last traded just above $63 a barrel — has shed 12% so far this year, hurt by the fallout from Trump’s trade tariffs, as well as a decision by OPEC+ to loosen supply curbs at a faster-than-expected pace. Still, prices have recovered some ground after the U.S. and China scaled back some levies for 90 days, rising from a four-year closing low seen earlier this month.
The U.S. president’s “inferred preference for relatively low oil prices directionally supports our view that oil prices are likely to edge lower in 2025-2026,” the analysts said, while also noting upside risks to expectations given the recent de-escalation of trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
Jake Lloyd-Smith, Bloomberg News
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