Shipments of U.S. orange juice to Canada fell in June to their lowest in more than 20 years, according to newly released U.S. Census Bureau data, as a combination of agricultural setbacks, shifting consumer habits and trade tensions squeeze supply.
“There’s no question U.S. orange juice to Canada has slumped ... and it’s at multi-year lows,” Michael Graydon, CEO of Food, Health and Consumer Products of Canada, said in an interview with CTVNews.ca. “It hasn’t been just one single cause. It’s kind of a collision of tight global supply, changing consumer preferences, and more recently, the tariff overhang in North America.”
Florida, traditionally a major supplier of fresh orange juice, has seen its crop shrink dramatically over the last two decades, due to citrus greening disease, blight and repeated storm damage, according to Graydon.
Output this year alone is down more than a third compared to last year, Graydon noted, with little sign of a quick recovery.
Graydon said Canada has looked to Brazil as the next major source but weather and disease have reduced production there as well, limiting export availability.
With supply constrained, prices have climbed — and it’s affecting how Canadians shop. Graydon said per capita orange juice consumption in North America has dropped significantly over the past 20 years, as breakfast habits have shifted and health-conscious consumers have grown more cautious about sugar intake.
Adding to the pressure is the ongoing trade dispute between Canada and the U.S. Ottawa’s retaliatory tariffs on certain American products, including a 25 per cent duty on unfrozen Florida orange juice, have pushed prices higher.
While the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) exempts many cross-border goods, some key grocery staples — including orange juice — remain subject to duties, raising costs for retailers and consumers alike.
Industry analysts like Graydon warn that the impact of these tariffs is being felt more in Canada than in the U.S. Graydon said the measures have had minimal impacts on the U.S. economy, but are contributing to food inflation here.
“You can’t take an economy that’s 10 per cent of the U.S. economy and expect our retaliatory tariffs to have any impact.”
Only a few sectors, including Kentucky bourbon, have had “damaging impact” in the U.S., Graydon said.
Packaging materials and imported ingredients that don’t have Canadian-made alternatives are also caught by the counter-tariffs, increasing manufacturing costs, Graydon said.
Some suppliers who initially absorbed the expense in hopes of a quick resolution are now passing those costs along to the shoppers, he added. Metro’s latest earnings report noted an uptick in pricing requests tied to tariff impacts.
The result on store shelves is a combination of higher prices and fewer deals.
“In the short term, expect continued instability at retail - fewer promotions, less volume and higher prices,” Graydon said.
Importing from other potential countries is possible, but the cost of transportation makes it less feasible, Graydon explained, using Spain as an example. He said both Florida and Brazil are prioritizing domestic customers over exports, further tightening supply for Canada.
Consumers are responding by shifting to alternatives such as shelf-stable juice blends that are often cheaper than fresh, refrigerated varieties, Graydon observed. He warned that the trend is also reducing choice.
“Supply isn’t just constrained. It’s complex and prices are heading further upward, unless the trade environment stabilizes,” he said.
Canadian shoppers ‘vote with their wallets’
Eric Wickham, who worked on the Hoser Grocery Tracker project, which helped customers find the most affordable groceries in the Greater Toronto Area, notes shopping behaviours are shifting.
“Unless you survey all of Canada, you can’t really get a sentiment of whether or not they like orange juice anymore,” he said to CTVNews.ca. “But I can say Canadians definitely have had a tendency to vote with their wallet in the past.”
Wickham referenced the 2024 nationwide boycott of Loblaw, sparked by soaring grocery prices.
Pricing data suggests the cost of orange juice hasn’t increased dramatically. Statistics Canada reports that the average retail price for two litres of orange juice in June 2025 is only about 30 cents higher than in June 2024.
Wickham explained that disruptions in the supply chain – especially for products imported from, or processed in, the U.S – do eventually ripple down to consumers. Whether offset in price, incurred by retailers to protect margins or shifted onto shoppers directly, he said supply chain costs inevitably influence retail pricing.
For Wickham, the driving force behind Canadians shunning U.S. orange juice reflects broader discontent.
“I really do think this is brought about by all this ‘Buy Canadian’ and avoiding American products,” he said, suggesting shoppers still remember the geopolitical tension, threats to sovereignty and trade disputes since U.S. President Donald Trump took office in January.
Tariffs and inflation squeeze grocery budgets
The squeeze on Canada’s orange juice supply comes at a time when grocery prices are already climbing faster than overall inflation.
According to Loblaw’s July Food Inflation Report, Canada saw a 2.8 per cent year-over-year increase in food prices in June 2025 - slower than May’s 3.3 per cent rise, but still outpacing overall inflation.
Lower prices for fresh vegetables, which dropped 3.1 per cent, brought some relief for consumers during the summer months.
However, tariffs remain a major driver of rising food costs. Loblaw notes that about one-third of all inflation-related cost increases submitted by suppliers are tied directly to tariffs.
The report suggests the impact is twofold: Canadian counter-tariffs on U.S. food imports raise grocery prices directly, while U.S. tariffs on packaging and ingredients like spices and proteins - used by manufacturers selling in Canada - further inflate costs.
For now, the once-common glass of Florida orange juice at the Canadian breakfast table may be a rarer sight - not because it’s unavailable, but because it’s become an increasingly costly choice.
