CHICAGO — U.S. farmers will harvest their second-largest corn crop on record this autumn as lower yields caused by adverse summer weather were more than offset by larger plantings, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday.
The USDA projected the average 2026 U.S. corn yield at 180.7 bushels per acre, down from its forecast of 183 bpa a month ago, while the agency’s harvested acreage outlook increased to 88.6 million acres, from 87.4 million acres a month ago. Production increased slightly to 16.013 billion bushels from USDA’s July forecast of 16 billion bushels.
For soybeans, the USDA trimmed its 2026 U.S. yield forecast to 52.7 bpa from 53 bpa a month earlier. Production was projected at 4.519 billion bushels, up from 4.475 billion bushels a month earlier.
HEAT, DROUGHT STRESS CORN
Corn yields were dragged lower as severe heat and intensifying drought stressed pollinating crops in parts of the western Midwest last month, while excessive rain further east drowned fields and washed away soil nutrients.
This summer’s U.S. weather woes came as wars disrupted supply chains and drove up fuel and fertilizer costs, as heat seared European crops and forecasters warned that a super El Niño could further clip global food production.
But the USDA raised its outlook for harvested corn acres, which more than offset the drop in per-acre yields. As a result, U.S. farmers are expected to reap their second-largest corn crop on record, behind only the 2025 crop of 17.021 billion bushels.
Chicago Board of Trade corn Cv1 and soybean Sv1 futures extended gains after the USDA released its forecast.
U.S. corn crop conditions assessed by the USDA stabilized last week after three straight weeks of declines caused by stressful Midwest weather. Soybean condition ratings dipped slightly as the crop was entering its key pod-filling stage of development this month.
The latest condition ratings for both crops were the lowest for early August since 2023.
Analysts polled by Reuters, on average, expected the USDA to trim its corn yield view to 182.4 bpa and production to 15.934 billion bushels, along with a 76,000-acre cut to harvested area. For soybeans, the USDA was expected to reduce the average yield to 52.9 bpa and production to 4.472 billion bushels, while harvested area was expected to rise by 163,000 acres.
Stronger corn exports and a smaller supply to start the season were expected to reduce U.S. stocks at the end of the 2026/27 season to 1.653 billion bushels, from its 1.790-billion-bushel estimate in July. Soybean ending stocks for 2026/27 were seen at 320 million bushels, compared with 310 million previously.
(Reporting by Karl Plume in ChicagoEditing by Rod Nickel)
