Mike Vinokur, Portfolio Manager & Senior Wealth Advisor, Propellus Wealth Partners, iA Private Wealth
Focus: North American large caps
Top Picks: Microsoft, Uber, Manulife
MARKET OUTLOOK:
Markets are navigating a treacherous mix of credit cycle, war and potential stagflation. Not an easy mix to digest, especially when we are coming off three good years, with valuations that were not necessarily undervalued. We have been expecting a meaningful correction for some time, though admittedly we did not expect war as a catalyst to spark the correction.
Earlier this year, we began to raise cash and have been sitting on more than 35 per cent cash in equity model accounts since about Mid-February.
Earnings are still growing in North America, however, other parts of the world such as Europe and Asia may feel the effects of the war more acutely, owing to shortages of everything from oil, natural gas, fertilizer and other commodities. The current pullback has opened opportunities for us to deploy our cash now that valuations are coming off their high perch to more reasonable levels, and we believe that we will be seizing the opportunity over the next few days/weeks to deploy a healthy portion of our dry powder. We hope that an off ramp in the current war with Iran can be reached sooner rather than later and that the market can begin to discount a more normal flow of goods and lower inflationary pressures.
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TOP PICKS:
Microsoft (MSFT NASD)
We view Microsoft as a utility, a must have of sorts for many households and enterprises. The stock is down over 30 per cent from its most recent highs, yet earnings are still growing at better than 10 per cent per year with Azure still growing quickly.
They generate a high amount of free cash flow, allowing them to re-invest in the business and constantly refresh the offering. We believe that Microsoft will earn close to US$22.50 in fiscal 2028 and so is currently trading at a cheap multiple of 16 times those estimates.
Uber (UBER NYSE)
The stock is down 30 per cent from the peak. We think Uber has many opportunities ahead of it and the balance sheet strength to seize on them. The delivery segment is accelerating while monthly active users keep hitting new highs.
Their asset value strategy is robust having signed partnerships with key players in the industry.
The stock trades at 17 times forward estimated earnings and has a very solid balance sheet allowing them to keep seizing on opportunities. Just the other day they purchased Blacklane further pushing Uber into the chauffeur sector.
Manulife (MFC TSX)
Manulife has been executing extremely well and is not expensive for the quality enterprise that it is. We believe Manulife has earnings power to deliver US$5 per share next year and is trading at less than 10 times forward estimated earnings and a yield of 4.15 per cent.
We like the Lifeco industry, especially at this point in the cycle, given they typically have less credit exposure than typical financials (Manulife has credit exposure through Manulife Bank). The company has always maintained a very healthy Life Insurance Capital Adequacy Test (LICAT) ratio of approximately 137 per cent allowing them to keep returning capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks while investing in the business through acquisitions.
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT NASD | N | Y | Y |
| UBER NYSE | N | Y | Y |
| MFC TSX | N | Y | Y |
PAST PICKS: MARCH 7, 2025
Corebridge Financial (CRBG NYSE)
Then: US$32.04
Now: US$23.16
Return: -28%
Total Return: -24%
Parkland (PKI TSX) – Acquired by Sunoco October 31, 2025
Then: $36.35
Closed: $39.84
Return: 10%
Total Return: 13%
Secure Waste Infrastructure (SES TSX)
Then: $13.89
Now: $22.50
Return: 62%
Total Return: 65%
Total Return Average: 18%
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRBG NYSE | N | Y | Y |
| SES TSX | N | N | N |
