Mike Vinokur, Portfolio Manager, Senior Wealth Advisor, Propellus Wealth Partners, iA Private Wealth
Focus: North American large caps
Top Picks: Microsoft, Colliers, Expedia
MARKET OUTLOOK:
Investors should temper their enthusiasm, but it is premature to become overly bearish. As the saying goes, trees do not grow to the sky.
The powerful rally since the March 30 lows has surprised many investors, ourselves included. This V-shaped recovery has been one of the fastest on record, driving equity markets sharply higher in a very short period of time. As a result of the sharp rally, several areas of the market—particularly technology—had become overbought coming into the end of last week. Following such a rapid advance, periods of consolidation or even a sharp pullback are both normal and healthy.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic fundamentals remain relatively constructive. Employment growth has been steady, unemployment remains low, and consumers continue to demonstrate resilience. These factors may provide a supportive backdrop for equities.
U.S. market participation has broadened considerably this year. The Magnificent Seven are barely treading water on a year-to-date basis, however other sectors and groups, including small-cap stocks have done quite well. Although certain segments of the market may have gotten ahead of themselves, corporate earnings growth and upward earnings revisions have been impressive and have generally exceeded expectations.
The correction we experienced on Friday, June 5, may prove to be a necessary pause that allows the market to refresh and rebuild momentum for the next leg higher. Though, we doubt it’s a one day and done.
In the near term, we would not be surprised to see some additional consolidation or corrective activity as markets digest recent gains. This could take shape in the form of a sharp and short correction, or a consolidation to mark time. But by the time earnings season is upon us in mid July, we think the next leg higher into September will be in full swing.
Perhaps most noteworthy is the market’s ability to remain resilient despite the ongoing conflict involving Iran and broader geopolitical uncertainty. Investor sentiment has not yet reached euphoric levels. There remains a significant contingent of investors who continue to anticipate an imminent bear market. As a result, any meaningful positive developments—whether economic, geopolitical, or earnings-related—could drive markets substantially higher than many currently expect.
That said, volatility is likely to remain elevated. Investors should remain disciplined, maintain appropriate diversification, and focus on prudent risk management as markets continue to navigate an uncertain but potentially rewarding environment.
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TOP PICKS:
Microsoft (MSFT NASDAQ)
We view Microsoft as more like a utility than a typical software stock. For the moment the world of business runs on Microsoft and we are all happy to pay the yearly fee to have access to their platform, cloud and all other ancillary services they provide to business and personal users. This business has a fortress moat and very high operating margins. It is not cheap, on a 12-month forward earnings basis, trading at 22 times estimated earnings however, if estimates for earnings five years out are even remotely correct, this is a very compelling opportunity on a risk to reward basis.
Colliers (CIGI TSX)
Colliers operates in three main businesses – commercial real estate, engineering and investment management. A globally diversified professional services and investment management platform. This is a very well managed business, trading at less than 13 times forward earnings. Management’s interests are aligned with that of ordinary shareholders as they own 30 per cent of the equity. The company has grown from $1.7 billion in revenue in 2015 with 28 per cent adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (AEBITDA) margins to $6.2 in revenue with 72 per cent AEBITDA margins. We think they have many more levers to pull to increase revenue and a proven growth by acquisition strategy. At this valuation, we believe there is a large margin of safety versus our appraisal of fair market value (FMV).
Expedia (EXPE NASDAQ)
Expedia stock was hit quite badly from the start of this year in our view for two reasons. The first being the war with Iran and the increase in the price of travel due to the price of oil. The second is more related to SaaS-pocalypse and the fear that artificial intelligence (AI) would allow clients to bypass Expedia’s booking system to plan their travels. We believe that AI will serve to enhance Expedia’s business and will enable them to reduce operating costs and improve services to their customers. The company has very high free cash flow (FCF) conversion rates and is aggressively buying back its own stock. When the war in Iran comes to a resolution, we believe the market will reprice this name much higher. Based on current estimated earnings, the stock trades at a mere 10 times forward estimated earnings and less than seven times enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EV/EBITDA). Not a demanding valuations for a business with a great brand and moat.
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT NASDAQ | Y | N | Y |
| CIGI TSX | Y | N | Y |
| EXPE NASDAQ | Y | N | Y |
PAST PICKS: JUNE 9, 2025
Dental Corp (DNTL TSX) - Acquired by Private Equity January 14, 2026
Then: $8.61
Acquired at: $11.00
Return: 28%
Total Return: 28%
IAC (IAC NASDAQ) - Now People Inc. (PPLI NASDAQ)
Then: US$36.70
Now: US$41.98
Return: 14%
Total Return: 14%
Cenovus (CVE TSX)
Then: $18.77
Now: $40.37
Return: 115%
Total Return: 119%
Total Return Average: 54%
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| IAC – now PPLI | Y | N | Y |
| CVE | N | Y | Y |
