Kim Bolton, President and Portfolio Manager, Black Swan Dexteritas
Focus: Technology stocks
Top Picks: Arm Holdings, IBM, Tesla
MARKET OUTLOOK:
In May, global financial markets delivered mixed performance as artificial intelligence (AI) and technology shares helped drive equity markets to record highs, while oil posted sharp declines on positive developments surrounding a resolution to the Iran military conflict and the Strait of Hormuz energy supply disruption.
Global equity markets advanced, led by semiconductors and AI-related sectors, as investors positioned for a potentially record-setting IPO cycle in the middle of the year. Interest rates rose amid persistently elevated prices, while the U.S. dollar strengthened.
In May, the Black Swan Dexteritas (BSD) team let our technology hardware stocks ride the market’s momentum, but because many of our stocks were close, or exceeded our price targets, we also decided to raise our cash position to around 15 per cent and increase our short equity index hedge to approximately 50 per cent of the notional value of the stock portfolios.
Now is the time to protect our capital. While the market searches for the next fundamental catalyst, technical signal, and changes in capital flows, the BSD team will continue to trim those securities that are achieving their respective intrinsic values, and buy those technology growth stocks that exhibit longer, more lucrative investment runways. The hedging overlay continues to be an important tool to protect your capital in bearish markets, and an important tool to be ‘dialed down’ in bullish markets. The BSD team is proud to be your investment ‘eyes and ears’ in the technology arena.
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TOP PICKS:
Arm Holdings (ARM NASDAQ)
Company Overview: Arm is a leading British semiconductor and software design company that architects, develops, and licenses central processing unit (CPU) products and related technologies. Its energy-efficient processor designs are the global standard for mobile devices and are increasingly dominant in cloud infrastructure and automotive markets.
Products:
- Licenses microprocessor and graphics processing unit (GPU) designs to semiconductor companies.
- Recently expanded its platform to include production silicon products, such as the Arm AGI CPU.
- Provides compute platforms optimized for AI applications from the cloud to the intelligent edge.
Markets:
- Dominates the smartphone market and is rapidly expanding into data centres, automotive, and the Internet of Things (IoT).
- Trusted by major global technology companies for cloud infrastructure and autonomous machines.
Recent News:
- Arm is transitioning from being primarily a licenser of standards to offering more complete chip designs and silicon products.
- Announced the launch of the Arm AGI CPU, marking a historic move into production silicon.
- Reported record-breaking financial results driven by the broad deployment of AI technologies.
Financials:
- On May 6, Arm reported fourth quarter of the 2026 fiscal year of US$1.14 billion (an increase of 34 per cent year over year) and net income of US$313 million; marking the third straight year of 20 per cent plus revenue growth. The company achieved record-breaking quarterly and full-year results as AI infrastructure demand surged.
- Next earnings results to be released between July 29 and Aug. 3.
- 30-day performance: 61.26 per cent.
- 100-Day performance: 175.73 per cent.
- Buy one-third of a position here at approximately US$342.93 add at approximately US$325.78 and approximately US$308.64.
IBM (IBM NYSE)
Company Overview: International Business Machines Corporation (IBM), nicknamed Big Blue, is an American multinational technology company and a global provider of hybrid cloud, AI, and business services.
Products and Markets:
- Offers Watsonx for AI and data management, IBM Cloud, and quantum computing solutions.
- Provides software and hardware including IBM Power processors and enterprise security portfolios like Guardium.
- Serves 183 markets globally, focusing on industries requiring high-security data management and digital transformation.
Latest News:
- Announced IBM Sovereign Core at Think 2026 to help organizations operate AI-ready software platforms.
- Introduced Red Hat AI Inference and OpenShift Virtualization services on IBM Cloud.
- Reported progress in quantum computing, successfully simulating magnetic materials.
Financial Update:
- On April 22, IBM reporter first quarter results of US$15.9 billion in revenue (increase of nine per cent year over year, six per cent plus in constant currency).
- Software revenue was a key growth driver, increasing 12 per cent in the previous quarter.
- Gross profit and operating margins remain a focus as the company transitions toward higher-value hybrid cloud and AI services.
- Next earnings results to be released on July 22
- 30-day performance: 27.42 per cent
- 100-day performance: 19 per cent
- Buy one-third of a position here at approximately US$284.84 add at approximately US$270.60 and approximately US$256.36
Tesla (TSLA NASDAQ)
Company Overview: Tesla is a vertically integrated sustainable energy and technology company that designs, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and energy storage systems. The company is credited with pioneering the electric car market and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Products and Markets:
- Designs and manufactures battery electric vehicles (BEVs) including Model S, 3, X, and Y.
- Produces stationary battery energy storage devices for residential, commercial, and utility-scale use (Tesla Energy).
- Markets solar panels and integrated renewable energy solutions.
- Operates globally with significant market share in the United States and has manufacturing capacity for over a million vehicles annually.
Latest News:
- Tesla is focusing on an acceleration of AI, software, and fleet-based profits to augment its product lineup.
- Recent updates include “FSD stats” and turning vehicle software into a real-world video game environment.
- The company was ranked as a top Net Zero Leader in 2026.
Financials:
- On April 22, Tesla reported first quarter financial results of generally accepted accounting principles earnings per share (GAAP EPS) US$0.41 (beat versus estimates of approximately US$0.35 to US$0.38).
- The company confirmed its results after market close, exceeding analyst expectations for the quarter.
- Management highlights an evolution toward AI and software-driven revenue streams alongside vehicle deliveries.
- Next earnings results estimated for July 22
- 30-day performance: minus 8.10 per cent
- 100-day performance: 1.40 per cent
- Buy one-third of a position here at approximately US$408.95 add at approximately US$388.50 and approximately US$368.06
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARM NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
| IBM NYSE | Y | Y | Y |
| TSLA NASDAQ | Y | Y | Y |
PAST PICKS: JUNE 18, 2025
Spotify (SPOT NYSE)
Then: US$710.19
Now: US$496.69
Return: -30%
Total Return: -30%
Roblox (RBLX NYSE)
Then: US$102.65
Now: US$42.63
Return: -58%
Total Return: -58%
Adobe (ADBE NASD)
Then: US$378.04
Now: US$235.59
Return: -38%
Total Return: -38%
Total Return Average: -42%
| DISCLOSURE | PERSONAL | FAMILY | PORTFOLIO/FUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPOT NYSE | N | N | N |
| RBLX NYSE | N | N | N |
| ADBE NASDAQ | N | N | N |

