WASHINGTON – The Trump administration is “willing to use any leverage it has in order to get Canada, or any other country, to do what it wants,” a Washington-based U.S. Canada expert tells CTV News.
But Christopher Sands says there is room for the optimism shown by Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc after he met with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Tuesday, even if the new 10 per cent tariffs were threatened just hours later.
Sands is director of the Center for U.S.-Canada Studies at Johns Hopkins University. CTV News spoke to him Tuesday outside his office in Washington, which is both next door to the Canadian embassy and has a clear view of the U.S. Capitol building down the street.
LeBlanc emerged from his meeting with Greer Tuesday hailing it as “positive” and said he was “eternally optimistic” as to the potential of a full 16-year renewal of the Canada U.S. Mexico free trade deal, also known as CUSMA.
The tariff news came later Tuesday night. Sands calls this a “fascinating juxtaposition,” but understands why LeBlanc sees the day as a win, even in the face of new tariffs.
“The talks don’t have Canada on the sidelines now, and so that was an achievement,” he said.
Secondly, Sands sees some positives in the U.S. attempting to tackle issues like forced labour outside the CUSMA negotiations.
“The good news is that might mean (CUSMA) could move as far as renewal, or that the negotiations could be more constructive going forward,” he said. “The bad news is this is designed to keep the U.S. with leverage, even if we renew (CUSMA), because we have the other issues that we could use to impose tariffs on Canada.”
As for the newly proposed 10 per cent tariff, Sands says it’s important to note these are not in place yet, and they must follow a process, given they fall under section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act.
That’s different from the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs that were struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court, colloquially known as the fentanyl tariffs. The fentanyl tariffs did not have the same process requirements.
That process gives Canada a few options, according to Sands: it can argue in favour of a lower tariff rate, increase or defend its enforcement practices, or challenge the decision entirely through litigation at the United States International Trade Commission.
Sands says from the current investigation state, the process moves next to the U.S. Department of Commerce.
“There will be scrutiny as to whether the U.S. claim is fair, and that gives time to negotiate.”
The USTR says they will hold hearings about the new proposed tariffs July 7.
