Cabinet ministers briefed on the increased pace of talks between Canada and the United States remain skeptical U.S. President Donald Trump will make the necessary concessions to secure a deal. However, many who spoke to CTV News are convinced he wants one, given the political pressure he faces in the midterms.
One minister, who is not authorized to speak publicly on the issue, told CTV News it’s “now or maybe never” that a window exists to get Trump to make concessions to Canada on issues, particularly auto tariffs, that are not only dominating key senate races in places like Michigan, but have been identified as red lines by the prime minister.
Other red line issues include French language and culture, and Canada’s ability to trade with other countries. Two sources tell CTV News they expect Trump could move on the latter two, but autos remain the toughest negotiating issue.
Two ministers tell CTV News the message from “the centre” is “there’s a window” with the U.S. on these trade discussions, and to stay disciplined.
Two others were unsure Canada should hand Trump any kind of win in advance of the midterms. One of them noted the president has not stopped his rhetoric on Canada. As recently as last week, at a Michigan rally, Trump contended Canada has been “ripping off” the United States for years, without providing evidence.
Every minister who spoke to CTV News on background conveyed deep skepticism about a path to a broad “deal.” One said there are “too many free radicals” on the American negotiating team, especially when compared with the officials at the table during Trump’s first term.
Another minister said the “trust is gone.”
Trust between partners
That message was underscored by other people briefed on the state of talks who tied the breakdown in trust on both sides to the abrupt end to negotiations in August.
At a press conference after the U.S. imposed even more tariffs on Aug. 22, Prime Minister Mark Carney accused the White House of launching a trade “war” on Canada, and suggested America couldn’t be trusted because it sometimes signs in pencil.
Asked on Monday how he knows the president would sign in pen this time, Carney said he didn’t and wouldn’t say whether he trusts Trump.
Sources told CTV it remains unclear to the Canadian side whether the president is engaging them in earnest, or whether it’s just for show to appease angry midterm voters hoping for tariff relief.
On Wednesday, CTV News reported that U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra told an off-the-record business lunch on Tuesday that Canada could be blamed if results in Michigan and Maine go against the president next week.
The information was reported based on three sources with knowledge of the ambassador’s comments. CTV News is not identifying them as they were not authorized to disclose the confidential discussion.
The embassy said Hoekstra’s comments were taken out of context but declined to elaborate on what that additional context was.
One of the sources who spoke with CTV News said the private remarks show the difficult position Canada is in. Even if a deal is made, officials don’t know if they could trust it or how long it would last. On the flip side, if they don’t strike a deal, things could get worse.
At the same business lunch, Hoekstra also played down the prospects of reaching a deal this week. Two sources said he told the gathering that anyone hoping for an imminent deal would likely be disappointed.
A spokesperson for the U.S. embassy declined to comment “on private conversations.”
On Parliament Hill Wednesday, CTV News asked Carney why Canada was willing to entertain a deal with the United States, when Trump’s delegates were setting Canada up to take blame for midterm losses.
“We think there’s are deals that are in the best interests of Canada first and foremost, but also are in the interests of the United States. That’s always been the case,” Carney said.
“We’ve been consistent. If those deals present themselves, we will pursue them. But we’re not at that position right now.”
Ministers also conceded to CTV News selling a deal to Canadians will be as one put it, “next to impossible” as little to no preconditioning is being done with the public about the tariffs that Ottawa would have to agree to in any deal.
Canada’s top trade negotiator Janice Charette has warned business audiences that the tariffs are here to stay even if a deal is struck, but the same point has not been widely made with voters.
Multiple sources tell CTV News it was commerce secretary Howard Lutnick who initiated the talks last week, with one call lasting three hours. His presence in this round of talks is focused on the application of 232 tariffs on things like steel, aluminum and autos. Those tariffs are under his purview.
Lutnick was a chaotic force toward the end of negotiations in August, and sources at the time on the Canadian side said his last minute demands of Canada are part of the reason those talks fell apart. Three sources briefed on the state of current negotiations said they don’t trust Lutnick.
