If 2026 is shaping up to be a significant year for high-profile IPOs, one of the most closely watched could come from an unlikely corner of Silicon Valley: defence technology.
Anduril Industries, a startup founded less than a decade ago, has reportedly reached a valuation exceeding US$60 billion in private markets. That figure places it in rare company and squarely in competition, at least in market value terms, with some of America’s largest and longest-standing defence contractors.
We recently took a closer look at Anduril’s business model on Ticker Take.
To understand the opportunity, it helps to start with the companies Anduril is challenging.
The legacy giants
For decades, U.S. military power has been closely tied to a small group of industrial titans. Companies like Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman, Boeing and General Dynamics have dominated the defence landscape.
Among them, Lockheed Martin stands out. It is the prime contractor behind the F-35 Lightning II program, one of the most expensive weapons systems in history, with a lifetime program cost estimated in the trillions of dollars. The company generates roughly US$75 billion in annual revenue, much of it from the U.S. government.
These firms were built to design and manufacture highly complex hardware: fighter jets, missile systems, ships and satellites. Their scale, infrastructure and government relationships have historically created high barriers to entry.
But the industry was built around long development cycles and large, capital-intensive programs that often span decades.
That structure is now being tested.
A different approach to defence
Anduril was founded in 2017 by Palmer Luckey, who previously created Oculus VR, later sold to Meta Platforms for US$2 billion.
Rather than focusing on traditional military hardware, Anduril positioned itself as a defence technology company built around software and autonomy.
At the centre of its model is a software platform called Lattice. The system is designed to connect drones, sensors and other military assets into a unified, AI-enabled network. It can ingest data, identify potential threats and coordinate responses, in some cases autonomously.
That software-first architecture allows the company to iterate more quickly than legacy contractors whose programs are tied to long procurement timelines and complex physical platforms.
In recent years, Anduril has secured contracts to develop autonomous air defence systems and has deployed technology ranging from surveillance towers along the U.S.–Mexico border to AI-enabled systems for naval operations.
The company’s pitch is straightforward. Modern warfare is increasingly shaped by software, sensors and autonomous systems. Software can be updated, improved and scaled faster than traditional hardware.
The valuation question
Anduril’s growth in private markets has been rapid.
The company was valued at less than US$2 billion in 2020. By 2025, reports suggested its valuation had reached roughly US$30 billion. More recent reports indicate it may now exceed US$60 billion following additional funding discussions.
Revenue has grown alongside that valuation. Anduril reportedly generated about US$1 billion in sales in 2024 and has said that figure doubled to roughly US$2 billion in 2025.
That revenue base remains small relative to established defence primes. Lockheed Martin, for example, generates tens of billions of dollars annually. Investors appear to be valuing Anduril not on current scale but on projected growth and structural shifts within defense spending.
An IPO, if it materializes, would likely be evaluated in that context. It would be seen as a high-growth technology company operating within the defence sector rather than a traditional contractor.
The drone shift
Part of the thesis underpinning Anduril’s rise, is the changing nature of warfare.
For decades, military power was associated with large, expensive platforms: fighter jets costing tens of millions of dollars and aircraft carriers costing billions.
Autonomous drones are altering that equation. They are generally cheaper, faster to produce and can be deployed at scale. The war in Ukraine underscored the strategic importance of drones, with both sides relying heavily on unmanned systems for surveillance and attack operations.
As defence budgets adjust to these realities, spending may shift toward systems that prioritize autonomy, software integration and rapid iteration.
Global defence spending is expected to reach record levels this year, with estimates pointing to approximately US$2.6 trillion worldwide. Within that envelope, competition for contracts remains intense.
Government pressure and industry change
At the same time, there are signs that policymakers want to accelerate innovation inside the defence industrial base.
In January, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing defence contractors to prioritize innovation and production capacity. The order gives the Pentagon authority to limit stock buybacks, dividends and executive compensation for companies that fail to meet those investment expectations, aiming to shift incentives toward delivering capabilities rather than returning capital to shareholders.
That dynamic may create openings for newer entrants that emphasize reinvestment and technological speed.
Still, legacy contractors retain significant advantages. They have established production facilities, long-standing government relationships and experience managing complex, multi-decade programs. In many cases, startups partner with larger firms rather than replacing them outright.
Software as the differentiator
The broader argument behind companies like Anduril is that software is becoming central to military capability.
Just as software transformed industries such as finance, transportation and communications, proponents argue it is now reshaping defence. Systems that can integrate data, coordinate assets and update in near real time may offer strategic advantages over static platforms.
If that thesis holds, companies built around software architecture rather than purely hardware manufacturing could capture a growing share of defence budgets.
Execution risk remains significant. Defence procurement is complex. Scaling manufacturing for physical systems, even autonomous ones, requires capital and operational discipline. Any IPO would also expose Anduril to the scrutiny and quarterly expectations that come with public markets.
The Ticker Take
For decades, defence was dominated by industrial giants built around hardware and scale. Anduril represents a different model. It is software-driven, focused on autonomy, and structured more like a Silicon Valley technology company than a traditional defense prime.
At a reported valuation above US$60 billion, investors are effectively betting that the future of warfare will be defined less by the biggest factory and more by the most advanced code.
If Anduril does move forward with an IPO, it would offer public market investors exposure to a company positioned at the intersection of artificial intelligence, autonomy and defence spending.
That combination could define the next chapter of the industry.
Jon Erlichman is a BNN Bloomberg contributor and the host of Ticker Take on YouTube.
