Investors often hear that the market is forward-looking.
But sometimes it gets out of sync with the economy, running too far ahead or falling too far behind. Those disconnects can create opportunity.
In the latest episode of Ticker Take, I spoke with Liz Miller, a successful investor who builds her portfolio around macroeconomic trends rather than individual stock picks.
Her approach is different from a traditional stock picker. Instead of starting with individual companies, she begins with the bigger picture, identifying long-term trends shaping the economy. From there, she screens sectors and industries with exposure to those themes, and uses fundamental analysis to choose representative companies.
The goal isn’t to predict the next quarter, but to position a portfolio for what’s unfolding over years.
Right now, Miller sees a few major themes driving her thinking. The global population is aging. Artificial intelligence is reshaping entire industries. And the underlying U.S. economy entered 2026 on relatively stable footing.
As for choosing individual companies within those themes, Miller looks for strong business strategy, balance sheet strength, and attractive valuation. She is often willing to buy stocks at lower price-to-earnings ratios that are out of favor, ahead of other investors recognizing the opportunity.
That is where the idea of a “mispriced” stock comes in. The underlying trend is positive, but the market hasn’t fully priced it in yet.
With that framework in mind, here are the four stocks Miller highlighted. As always, this is not financial advice.
Toll Brothers is one of the names Miller added last fall as a play on both interest rates and the aging population. The U.S. has been underbuilding homes for years, and as rates come down, she expects building activity to pick up significantly. Toll Brothers stands out for its focus on the luxury end of the market, which Miller views as a more stable corner of the home building sector. Early boomers are actively changing homes or looking to, and that demographic shift supports demand over the long term.
Lennar is the other home builder on Miller’s list, and she sees it as more of an unloved name with upside. The company has been investing in technology in ways that could meaningfully improve its operations and margins over time. Combined with the broader tailwinds of underbuilt housing supply and demographic demand, Miller believes Lennar is well positioned as conditions improve.
Microsoft has had a tough start to the year. Some investors are questioning whether it can maintain its position in artificial intelligence. Miller thinks that view is premature. The rest of the business remains strong, and the company recently announced an in-house AI chip designed to compete with Nvidia.
Meanwhile, the forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen to its lowest level since 2019, leaving the stock trading below its 10-year average. For Miller, that combination of a stable business and a compressed valuation is exactly the kind of disconnect she looks for.
Netflix is the fourth name on Miller’s list, and one she sees as overly punished by the market.
The stock took a significant hit during heightened competition with Warner Bros. Discovery. Miller views that decline as a good entry point for long-term investors.
The underlying trends have not changed. Consumer spending on streaming remains strong, and Netflix continues to lead on subscriber growth. The company has also shown a consistent ability to raise prices.
The Ticker Take
Markets do not always reflect what is happening in the economy in real time.
Sometimes they get ahead of the story. Other times they fall behind.
Miller’s approach is built around finding the gap. By starting with the trends she believes will matter most over the long term, and then looking for companies that fit those themes at attractive valuations, she aims to take advantage of moments when the market has not yet caught up.
In a volatile year, that kind of disciplined, trend-driven approach may resonate with investors looking past the noise to what’s actually shaping the economy.
Jon Erlichman is a BNN Bloomberg contributor and the host of Ticker Take on YouTube.
